Peace talks between Washington and Tehran are edging towards the finish line, but nobody’s quite ready to shake hands yet.
Speaking on Sunday, US Vice President JD Vance confirmed that negotiations over Iran’s nuclear programme are progressing, but stopped short of declaring any breakthrough.
“We’re very close,” Vance said, “but we’re not there yet.”
It’s the kind of carefully calibrated optimism that diplomats do so well, and it tells you everything and nothing at the same time.
Earlier, US officials briefed the BBC that the framework of a ceasefire extension deal had effectively been agreed upon, with the remaining hurdle being sign-off from both Donald Trump and Iran’s supreme leadership. That’s not a small hurdle, of course. Getting two volatile political personalities to stamp their approval on the same piece of paper is rarely a formality.
The talks are the latest chapter in a long and turbulent saga over Iran’s nuclear ambitions. Tehran has consistently maintained that its programme is peaceful. Washington, along with much of the West, has never quite believed that. The original JCPOA deal, struck in 2015 under Obama, collapsed spectacularly in 2018 when Trump pulled out during his first term. That the two sides are even this close to an agreement now is, frankly, remarkable.
What’s driving the urgency? Partly geography, partly economics. Sanctions have squeezed Iran hard, and a deal could unlock significant relief. On the American side, a foreign policy win wouldn’t go amiss for an administration still finding its footing on the world stage.
There are sceptics on both sides, naturally. Hardliners in Tehran have little appetite for compromise, and Republican hawks in Congress are already sharpening their objections. Any deal will face intense scrutiny the moment the ink is dry.
Still, “very close” is a long way from where things stood even six months ago. The question now is whether the political will exists on both sides to cross that final, awkward stretch of no man’s land, or whether this ends up as yet another near-miss in one of the world’s most stubborn diplomatic standoffs.
