Enjoy it while it lasts. The warm spell that’s had half the country digging out their garden furniture and pretending summer has arrived early is about to come to a rather abrupt end, just in time to put a dampener on the bank holiday weekend.
Temperatures across the UK hit the low-to-mid 20s this week, with parts of southern England nudging 23°C on Wednesday, which is frankly extraordinary for this time of year. Meteorologists at the Met Office confirmed the warmth has been driven by a southerly airflow pulling in air from the near continent, but that conveyor belt of heat is set to break down by Friday.
By Saturday, an Atlantic low pressure system is expected to push in from the west, bringing cloud, outbreaks of rain, and temperatures dropping back to somewhere between 12°C and 16°C across most of the country. The kind of weather, in other words, that feels perfectly designed to ruin a barbecue.
“We’re looking at a fairly classic bank holiday scenario,” one Met Office forecaster noted in a briefing earlier this week. “The unsettled conditions look likely to persist through Sunday, with some improvement possible by Monday, though confidence in the finer detail remains low.”
That caveat about confidence matters. Bank holiday forecasting is notoriously tricky, and the difference between a soggy washout and a merely grey, chilly weekend can hinge on the precise track of a pressure system that’s still several hundred miles out in the Atlantic.
Scotland and Northern Ireland are likely to catch the worst of the early rain, with persistent showers possible through Saturday. Wales and the southwest of England will follow, while eastern areas might hang onto slightly drier conditions for a few hours longer. Might.
The good news, if you’re prepared to squint a little, is that the broader pattern beyond the bank holiday looks more encouraging. Some forecast models are hinting at a return to higher pressure through the first week of May, which could bring another spell of settled, warmer weather.
Whether that’s enough consolation for anyone who’s already bought three bags of charcoal and a new set of tongs is another question entirely.
